In my recent blog post entitled
Spectrum is Oxygen, I talked about the upcoming radio spectrum crunch (shortage/crisis/reallocation?) that is going to occur due to pressure from mobile wireless carriers migrating to 4G technology. It may not be clear to some why 4G is significant as it may appear to be just another "new and improved" technology, much like upgrading software or buying a new ham rig. It's more.
4G, as the name would imply, is the fourth generation of mobile wireless. The first generation was analog cellular, known as AMPS, at least here in North America. There were mobile phone services before AMPS, however they didn't have widespread adoption as they were expensive services in limited areas, often mirroring local pager or two way radio company footprints. With AMPS, most of the US had coverage, but roaming between systems was an adventure and could be quite expensive. You couldn't just call a cell phone subscriber and expect to reach them if they were outside of their home system coverage; you often had to dial up a mobile access phone number of the carrier system they where roaming in. The technology behind AMPS was quite simple, frequency modulated carriers and a data control channel that was used to communicate with mobiles for call setup. Towards the end of the 1G era, the FCC here in the US expanded the number of mobile carriers in each market from two to up to eight, and allocated more spectrum.
2G introduced digital technology such as TDMA, GSM, and CDMA, mainly to squeeze more voice conversations out of channels, but also to introduce new features. Data services like CDPD were created. Phones became smaller and handheld phones replaced phones in vehicles and bulky "bag phones". Networking between mobile carriers became the norm and roaming between systems became automatic and nearly seamless within countries, but not internationally. One way text messaging called Short Message Service was introduced, and later it became two way, but usually worked only between phones on the same network.
In 3G, things really took off. In 1G, mobile phones were for the wealthy and businesspeople. In 2G, blue collar folks were using them in their jobs. With 3G, housewives and teenagers got phones with carriers offering affordable family plans. With this the mobile carriers have essentially fully penetrated the market. Now the only additional revenue to be had is either through stealing customers from other carriers, or offer more services and applications that can be charged for. Internet service on phones and data dongles for laptops have become commonplace. However, voice and data are still, for the most part, separate traffic streams on the network.
Enter 4G. 4G is mainly two technologies, WiMax and LTE. WiMax is the brethren of WiFi / IEEE standard 802.11. WiFi revolutionized wireless data and unwittingly enabled the wireless ISP industry. Originally intended only as an indoor wireless LAN protocol, WiFi was extended to provide data service in point-to-point links and point-to-multipoint networks. WiMax was created in IEEE standard 802.16 from the lessons learned from 802.11 WiFi. Today pre-WiMax networks are deployed throughout the world and WiMax is starting to be deployed by several companies in the US, mainly Clearwire.
LTE or Long Term Evolution has different family roots, coming from the mobile carrier suite of technologies and is a natural progression from 3G protocols such as UMTS. Several tier one mobile carriers such as Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility, and T-Mobile have committed to LTE buildouts.
For the most part, LTE and WiMax do the same thing. Voice is no longer on traffic streams separate from data. The entire network is IP based and voice is just another data packet stream but with a high prioritization than other packets. Every device has an IP address and the network is built from the ground up to be very scalable from a bandwidth perspective, supporting mere kilobits up to 100 or more megabits per second, per subscriber device. Base stations are equipped with multiple "smart" antennas that digitally process RF signals to demodulate even weaker signals and get more bits per hertz out of the spectrum.
With 4G, wireless networks go beyond just mobile wireless applications. With ubiquitous coverage, two protocol standards that are for all intents and purposes the same and adopted by all carriers, and a packet-based network that is fully IP, this is creating a wireless network for fixed and mobile applications and will lead to network convergence never experienced before. Laptops will have 4G in them as a standard feature, like WiFi is today. Instead of buying OnStar service and satellite radio for your vehicle, your vehicle will be equipped with 4G and all the services in the vehicle will be IP based. Furthermore, you'll be able to get mobile video for the kids in the back seat and car companies will monitor your vehicle's performance in near real time. Smart Grid, the initiative to modernize the power grid with monitoring and control capabilities, will undoubtedly use 4G to a large extent to pull data from millions of devices. As 4G chipset prices go down, common devices that require periodic servicing or data telemetry will have 4G capabilities in order to communicate with automated systems. Homes that do not have cable TV coverage will be able to subscribe to video service over 4G sometime in the future, in addition to getting broadband Internet service. The possibilities are endless.
With the 700 Mhz auctions, the FCC introduced the idea of public safety networks being provided by commercial wireless carriers. While the FCC was unsuccessful at auctioning the "public safety strings-attached" spectrum this time around and many of us in the communications world question this concept, the idea is out there and it's undoubtedly going to happen in the future, at least for less critical public safety communications.
With all of these bandwidth-hungry applications, carriers will undoubtedly need more spectrum. With technology they are achieving more bits per hertz than ever before, however this can only be taken so far before more frequencies are needed. I mentioned in my previous blog article that I think amateur radio spectrum is safe this time around but I don't think we will be so lucky when 5G or whatever next generation technology arrives. The FCC and other regulatory bodies are going to reallocate spectrum, grabbing the lowest hanging fruit first. UHF TV was one of the first bands to be re-allocated here in the US because it had so much unused spectrum, mainly due to outdated allocation rules and the rise of cable TV. The move is on to support public safety networks on commercial wireless networks; undoubtedly there will be a push to move business two way radio systems to 4G, and economics may drive that even more than the FCC, freeing up more spectrum. With enormous computing power and software defined radio technology in handheld devices, it's rather easy to support new frequency bands, so we could probably have devices supporting 100 Mhz to 5 Ghz capabilities in the near future giving new levels of frequency and protocol agility which will support many new band allocations if needed.
When you look at mobile wireless spectrum, attaining perhaps 2 or 3 bits per hertz spectral efficiency and serving millions of customers, it's hard to defend our use of a 4 Mhz wide band that at any given moment in any area is supporting perhaps three or four voice conversations. Doing some back-of-napkin math, this would be about 0.016 bits per hertz efficiency. I know the amateur radio service offers much more beyond a spectral efficiency number, but hopefully you can see the difficulty in justifying our usage of spectrum to the FCC when there are companies willing to pay millions of dollars for spectrum that will result in much more immediate and tangible benefits to the general public.
It's an exciting time in the communications world. The concept of having a seamless standard data network with broadband capabilities covering nearly the entire the civilized world was science fiction twenty years ago. In amateur radio, we can't ignore 4G, either as a threat to our spectrum or an opportunity to extend our networks and our technology, strengthening amateur radio.